Archives for posts with tag: Batteries

Introduction

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is on the cusp of a renaissance. For long, UAM was the domain of the ubiquitous helicopter. However helicopters had their limitations on the noise & emissions fronts in addition to being expensive and therefore rarified to the rich and famous.

The NASA Puffin eVTOL Concept from 2009-10. Pic Source : Wikipedia

Much like Tesla revolutionized the EV and the automotive landscape in general, eVTOLs are set to do the same for UAM. Like helicopters they have Vertical Take Off & Landing (VTOL) ability , however they bring advantages such as efficiency, zero emissions & mitigated noise pollution in their attempt to democratize UAM.

Tesla’s biggest developments lie in the integrating and increasing battery density and management systems. When Tesla launched the Roadster in 2008 the battery density was approximately 120 Wh/kg and today we are getting past 300 Wh/kg (marginally enough for eVTOLs). Similarly when we compare the power output improvements of the Roadster with the Model S (Plaid) we have numbers of 248 hp vs 1020hp (trimotor) in addition to thermal management of all onboard systems. eVTOLs face similar challenges with mass being all important and zero tolerance for failure.

We speak of four aspects of eVTOLs, the batteries, the motors, the propellers & lastly the design.

The second generation Tesla Roadster that was part of the EV revolution. EVs & eVTOLs share many technologies. Pic Source: Wikipedia

The Batteries

Range anxiety has always plagued EVs and Tesla was the first to create infrastructure such as superchargers across the USA, however before infrastructure comes battery technology.

The 2019 Nobel Prize for Chemistry went to Stanley Whittingham, John Goodenough & Akira Yoshino. Whittingham established the concept of intercalation, simply put, discovered how to make a rechargeable battery in the 1970s. Goodenough discovered the lithium cobalt oxide cathode that doubled existing battery power. Yoshino developed the first commercially safe lithium ion battery by using petroleum coke as the anode eliminating the use of pure lithium metal and making the battery safe for general use. The three of them are responsible for the power most of our devices use today and it took over 35 years of work to get the Nobel.

Tesla created the framework to harness battery power safely by using standard cylindrical cells in their Roadster. They created a sophisticated Battery Management System (BMS) to manage individual cells in battery packs to optimize performance across the temperature range and manage charge distribution. Tesla created a liquid cooling system for battery packs to maintain optimal operating battery temperature. They also pioneered the process of integrating a large number of batteries into the structure of their vehicles resulting in efficiencies across both performance & manufacture. Such integration also drove structural integrity. Reading this we realize it’s not surprising a significant number of battery engineers at eVTOL start ups cut their teeth while at Tesla.

To understand thermal management & put things in perspective, imagine having a Teams interview on your smartphone in a hot car with the AC running. Within a few minutes the battery pack in the phone heats and at some point it shuts the phone down (happened to me!). After cooling the phone in front of the AC vent your interview continues without video or speakers on. Now imagine 4680 cells working together (Tesla’s Roadster had this many) and the heat they generate. How do you manage to keep them cool and working optimally? This is where the BMS comes in along with the liquid cooling. BMS monitors each cell in the battery pack for voltages, temperatures and current flow. The system enforces safety limits on all of the above in addition to charge limits, heat & short circuits. All these need to be actively managed to avoid thermal runways (more on this later). Furthermore the BMS balances the loads on individual cells to ensure all cells have a balanced state of charge (SOC). The brain of the BMS is an algorithm that employs AI & machine learning tools to figure out what works best for each individual battery pack. The brain/algorithm further communicates with the EV’s systems as a holistic unit.

Joby Aviation’s integrated battery pack. Pic Source: Joby Aviation

The heating/cooling system runs antifreeze through Tesla patented cooling channels that have contact with each and every cell in the battery pack. The system is further integrated with the car’s HVAC system, and as needed the antifreeze is pumped through a heat exchanger for heating/cooling  as needed. The cooling system is integrated to the BMS to be actively managed. 

A thermal runway is an instance of a rapid and uncontrollable chain reaction within a cell or battery pack where temperature increases further accelerates the chain reaction. Thermal runways are triggered by an internal short circuit or external damage (ex: Richard Hammond’s 2017 Rimac, Concept One crash in Switzerland. The battery pack burned for five days after as per James May, more recently the AI171 crash is a thermal runway possibility, although no conclusions have been published. The pointers are there). Thermal runways need to be actively managed through prevention and if not, through mitigation. The same can be managed through BMS as mentioned earlier and mitigated through cell design such as using small cylindrical cells of limited number, fire retardant barriers between cells and modules such as mica. The battery packs themselves are designed to have venting systems that vent hot gases away from the passenger cabin and the rest of the battery pack to prevent spreading. Lastly the battery pack itself is created in a manner to contain such events in the safest manner possible.

The entire battery structure/BMS/cooling system is replicated in eVTOLs albeit with customization as per specific  individual needs.

Note: While battery power density might be ≥300Wh/kg eVTOLs unlike EVs have Depth of Charge (DoD) limits. In layman’s terms if a battery pack is at 300Wh/kg the eVTOL can use not more than 80% of the battery capacity. The first reason is safety in case the eVTOL needs to divert or the battery pack itself has a voltage crash. In actual terms this translates to not more than 240 Wh/kg of battery density available at any given time. The second is battery pack preservation as shallow DoD preserves packs. Lastly the FAA mandates these reserves. It needs to be mentioned that eVTOLs have very high power demands at takeoff/hover & landing. Typically Take off can demand approx 25% DoD, Cruise anywhere between 10-30% and landing a further 10%. Such a flight profile will use approx 65% DoD and keep the eVTOL within limits. 

The Motors

Wiki says the electric motor is a machine that converts electrical energy to mechanical energy through the interaction of the motor’s magnets with the electric current in a wire winding. The interaction produces torque which is applied to the motor’s shaft.

While electric motors have existed for about two centuries, we are more concerned with the developments of the last 25 years. In eVTOLs where power to weight ratio is all important, the role of electric motors takes on added importance when balancing weight, efficiency & power density all at the same time.

The power density of motors over the last 25 years has improved by a factor of 10! The trend points to power density doubling every 8 years from 2kW/kg in 2000 to 15kW/kg(In Oct’25 YASA created a motor that weights in 12.7kg and generates an insane 750kw! That is over 59.1 kw/kg). So contributes to the power density increases and where will we be in 5 years?

Archer Aviation’s electric motor on the left and Tesla Model 3 on the right. Pic Source: eVTOL.news

Materials are the first contributor to improved power densities in motors.

High performance rare earth magnets that contain materials such as neodymium has pushed up magnetic flux density inside motors which in turn produces stronger magnetic fields that produce higher torque. Energy loss is mitigated inside the motor core through use of thinner steel laminations, high efficiency and low loss materials and soft magnetic composites (SMCs) that permit complex 3D shapes for better efficiency. Lastly copper wire winding techniques themselves are being looked at to mitigate power loss and improve motor efficiency. One such example is ‘hairpin winding’, a technique that used solid rectangular conductors instead of wires to maximize conductor surface area.

The second contributor is motor design.

Motor design innovation is looking at pushing up motor speed of operation using fresh designs and parts that can handle higher centrifugal forces inside the motor. Motor architecture is looking axial flux architecture where the magnetic flux path is parallel to the axis of rotation instead of radial to it. Yokeless axial motors are motors where the stator (the motor winding) has teeth without a black iron or yoke connecting them.  

The third contributor is thermal management.

Thermal management inside the motors is critical to their performance. Liquid cooling using water or oil filled jackets are wrapped around or sprayed onto the stator. Advanced materials at the jacket / motor contact points improve thermal transfer with minimal resistance. 

The fourth contributor is systems integration.

Integration of electronics such as the inverter into a single unit reducing weight and improving efficiency. Wide gap semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) significantly allow for a larger bandgap over traditional silicon, giving them the ability to handle higher voltages, temperatures while switching at higher frequencies. Algorithms such as advanced Direct Torque Control (DTC) permit precise and faster motor control.

All eVTOLs use Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP) where they have between 6-36 motors & propellers to hedge against failure. The motors are fixed while the props have variable pitch or tilt. The motor / prop assembly is direct drive to improve efficiency (vs a gearbox). eVTOLs have the ability to land safely with just 70% motors operational as a result of this.

eVTOLs use a combination of axial and radial motors depending on application.

The Propellers

Now that we have spoken of the batteries & motors the third aspect to powering an eVTOL is propellers. They need to be efficient across the mission profile, safe and quiet.

Disk loading is the total thrust divided by the total swept area of all propellers and is measured in N/m2 . Low disk loading (50-200 N/m2) translates to large slow turning props that are quiet and have an efficient hover. High disk loading (500-1000 N/m2) translates to small, large fast turning props that are compact,loud and have a powerful takeoff and are inefficient at hover. In the urban space since noise pollution plays a role large props with low disk loading win as sound generally stays below 65dB while lifting efficiency is maintained.

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Propellers have four kinds of setups.

Fixed-Pitch Open Rotor: Blades are locked at one angle, while the entire prop assembly tilts (Joby Aviation) or separate lift (fixed) and cruise (tilt) props (Archer Aviation). Typically such engines use between 3-5 props (Archer started its rear props with 2 blades each but has now switched to four bladed fans as they produced a vibration when they moved edgewise forward during cruise).  The props themselves are extremely lightweight made of carbon composites with 3D printed titanium leading edges and sleeves. Since the props have no moving parts they are simple , light & cheap while being low on noise. Such props are optimized for one speed such as hover (, Beta A250) and cruise (Archer Midnight)

With a project marketsize of $1 tn by 2040 (as per Morgan Stanley who downgraded the numbers from $1.5 tn due to development delays in their report  eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update: A Slow Take-Off, But Sky’s the Limit , skeptics are much more conservative at approx $100-300 Bn range)the eVTOL industry is maturing rapidly. With high costs of development & certification most of the companies and products mentioned above have high burn rates and staying in the game is important. This is where partnerships & consolidation come in. Some examples below

Variable-Pitch Open Rotor:  Blades rotate on a hub much like a helicopter. The blades continue to be made of extremely light weight carbon compete with 3D printed titanium hinges. For VTOL the propeller pitch is set to high (steep angle relation to axis of rotation) and for cruise the props are set to low pitch (relatively shallow angle relative to axis of rotation). Such a setup can be used for all mission profiles. Joby S4 & Vertical Aeropace VX4 has such tilting props on the front having the best of both hover and cruise as needed.

Electric Ducted Fan (EDF): On the face of it an EDF looks very similar to a jet engine, they are even used on RC jet planes to mimic the jet engine effect, however they are very different. EDFs have a very small diameter compared to the other fans we have spoken of (Liliums fans were 0.8m diameter). They at very high speeds of over 6,000 rpm and generate over 2,000N of thrust per far. The disk loading is approx 800 N/m2 . The ducts block blade noise and to <55dB at height. Ducts do induce drag in cruise and are heavy in flight.

Coaxial Contra Rotating Rotors: Such props have two props on the same axis rotating in opposite directions.Such prop setups cancel torque within the assembly itself vs needing to have a similar assembly on the opposite side for torque cancellation. The EHang 216/VT-30 use such a setup. The blades themselves are made of carbon composite and have no gearbox. The setup is each rotor assembly has 2 sets of 4 bladeded props. They generate approx 1,000N thrust per assembly and disk loading is at 300 N/m2 . Such a setup is great for urban mobility, however range is limited due to high power needs.

The Design

Joby Aviation S4: A hybrid helicopter/aircraft design. It has six variable pitch tilting props with four on the wing and two on the V tail. Both the wingtips have and V tail tips have props to counter wingtip turbulence.The props have a diameter of 1.8m and have 5 blades each. The props on the S4 have scimitar-like curved tips for the purpose of aerodynamic efficiency and noise reduction. The S4 has a capacity of 1pilot + 4passengers .The wingspan & length are 39 feet length &  21 feet respectively with a height of 12 feet. The four battery packs are integrated into the carbon composite wings and have built in redundancy. Between the batteries , motors & props the S4 has MTOW of 4,800 pounds, a maximum cruise speed of 200 mph, range of 150 miles and a max altitude of 15,000 feet. The cabin sound is at 62 dB and the S4 is about 70% through its FAA certification process.

Joby Aviation S4. Props in VTOL tilt mode. Pic Source: Wiki Commons

Archer Aviation Midnight: The Midnight is once again a hybrid helicopter/aircraft design. It has a total of 12 props with 4 blades each. While all the props are loaded on the wings and have a diameter of 3m each with six on the leading edges of the wings are tilting and the six on the trailing edges are only for VTOL and fixed. The Midnight has a capacity of 1 pilot + 4 passengers. The wingspan & length are 48 & 41 feet respectively and the height is 12 feet. The batteries, motors & props give the Midnight MTOW is 6,500 pounds, a maximum cruise speed of 150mph with a max range of 100 miles, however the midnight is optimized for 20 mile trips. The six independent battery packs are in the wings . Cabin noise levels are around 45dB and the Midnight is approx 15through the FAA certification process as well.

Archer’s Midnight. Note the older props with two blades each on the trailing edge. The leading edge props are tilted upward for VTOL. Pic Source: eVTOL News.

Lillium Jet: Defunct Lillium Jet is in the lift due its stand out thrust vectoring EDF design. When their Intellectual Property went up for auction there was a bidding war between Joby & Archer and Archer won Lillium’s 300 patent portfolio for a total of $21million. The ducted EDFs had high thrust density and the all moving ducted fans were much wanted. The 7 seater Lillium Jet had 36 EDFs with a 24 fans of 0.45m each on the wings and 12 on the forward canards. The Lillium had 12 battery packs distributed through the wings and canards with high redundancy. The MTOW was to 7,055 pounds a range of 155 miles and a cruise speed of 175mph. The cabin noise was expected to be around 60dB. Lillium spent over $1.6 bn on developing the moonshot but did really proceed beyond a subscale demonstrator which again had a different set of fans with chevrons on them. When Archer won the bit Adam Goldstein their CEO said “Lilium’s pioneering work advanced the frontier of eVTOL design and technology, and we’re excited to bring their cutting-edge technologies into the fold at Archer as we advance our product roadmap”. So today Lillium can be considered a part of Archer Aviation.

The Lillium Jet. Pic Source: Wikipedia

Beta Technologies Alia A250: The A250 continues the helicopter/aircraft hybrid design. It had four fixed VTOL props + 1 pusher prop for cruise.The A250 has a lot of commonality with its sist eCTOL aircraft the CX300.The VTOL props have a 2.5m diameter, and 1.8m for the pusher prop. The A250 has two configs the first is 2 pilots + 1400 pounds of cargo or 5 pax. The battery packs are located in the fuselage floor for stability. The length & wingspan are 45 & 50 feet respectively with a height of 12 feet.The MTOW is 7000 pounds with a range of 250 miles and cruise speed of 170mph. The A250 is in advanced stages of certification as well.

Beta Technologies Alia A250. Pic Source : eVTOL News.

Volocopter Volocity 2X: Velocity is more like a helicopter with distributed propulsion. The Volocity 2X has 18 props distributed in two concentric circles above the fuselage. The diameter of each rotor is 1.8m The diameter of the outer rotor ring is 36 feet and the height of the Volocity 2X is 8.2 feet. The aircraft is designed for 1 pilot + 1 passenger with a MTOW of 1,984 pounds. The cruise speed is 68mph and range is 22 miles. Volocopter went bankrupt in early 2025 and Chinese company Wanfeng acquired their assets for $12 mn. Wanfeng is continuing the Volocity 2X’s certification through its Austrian subsidiary Diamond Aircraft.

The Volocity 2X. Pic Source: Wikipedia

Ehang EH-216: The EH-216 is the only eVTOL to commence commercial operations in specific locations in China for purposes of tourism and sightseeing. The EH-216 has 16 coaxial rotors of approx 1m each which spread out radially under the passenger cabin. The EH-216 is fully autonomous and can carry two passengers. The MTOW is 1,367 pounds with a range of 22 miles and a cruise speed of 81 mph. The aircraft has 12 battery packs integrated into the fuselage floor and rotor arms. The cabin noise is at 70dB and while flying in China FAA certification is in process.

The EH-216S the production version. Pic Source: eVTOL News

Partnerships & Consolidation

  • Toyota has invested $894mn in Joby and is a deep manufacturing partner
  • Joby has acquired H2Fly for its hydrogen tech & Blade air mobility’s passenger ops across 12 US vertiports
  • Integrated to Uber Elevate to tap into Uber’s UAM market
  • Stellantis has invested over $300 mn in Archer aviation & United over $10mn in Archer
  • We have already spoken of Lillum & Volocopter
  • Beta Technologies has a $46mn contract with USAF & UPS

Looking at these partnerships we see a clear blurring of lines in the manner people travel and the potential of this fledgeling industry. There are many more that have not been mentioned or are being incubated.

Innovation is here to stay….

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Full Circle Moment

The 2009 IATA Biofuels commitment turned out to be a full circle moment. The commitment did not introduce legally binding quotas on members, but instead made a landmark industrywide commitment to pursue sustainable aviation fuels as a core strategy for decarbonization. This included a pledge to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards (no increase in carbon dioxide emissions from a 2005 baseline) and to cut net carbon emissions in half by 2050 compared once again to a 2005 baseline.(73rd IATA Annual Meeting 2010)

The pledge kickstarted global SAF adoption and over 400,000 commercial flights have used SAF since then (World Economic Forum 2022/ GE Aerospace 2022). The 2009 commitment led to 2021’s ‘Fly Net Zero’ initiative, targeting net-zero emissions by 2050.

This piece looks at not just biofuels but other options as well.

Note the smoke pollution coming off this amazing looking Convair 880. Pic Credit Larry Pullen

The Background

Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) has the following strengths. The first is the ability to operate  at low ambient temperatures,the second is to have a high calorific value, this is measured by the heat produced by a specific quantity, measured as J/kg (1 Wh/kg = 3600 J/kg). The third is volumetric energy density that is the amount of energy that can be stored within a given volume and is measured as Wh/L and ATF with a volumetric energy density of 35 MJ/L has high density. A flashpoint of 49 degrees centigrade obviously makes it combustible and needs to have safety protocols while being handled. Lastly ATF is cheap to manufacture at approx $1.0 per liter. (Aviation Fuel Wikipedia)

By the mid 2000s aviation was under intense scrutiny for its contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Aviation was responsible for approx 2-3% of all carbon dioxide emissions, and was projected to grow rapidly. (expected to be over 25% by 2050).

While other forms of transport (road,rail,sea) had multiple forms of green propulsion coming up mainly dominated by electricity. Aviation had yet to see any move in the direction of decarbonizing. While the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference emphasized sector specific emission reductions there were other contributory incidents as well.

The 2008 financial crisis led to oil spiking at $147/barrel in July of that year and this only drove the point home to airlines, the need to hedge against fossil fuels. Biofuels did offer a hedge against this dependence, potentially stabilizing costs, Giovanni Bisignani of IATA emphasized that fuel innovation was key or else fuel would account for over 40% of airline costs by 2020 ( Reuters Factbox 2008, multiple sources)

By 2009, airframe and engine manufacturers had validated biofuels performance & safety and Virgin Atlantic flew the first flight with a SAF blend in 2008. Furthermore biofuels did not require any aircraft or engine modifications unlike electricity or hydrogen.

Growing calls from countries & private bodies like ICAO further influenced IATA to work on emissions reductions. Aviation was included by the EU in its emission trading system (ETS, a cap and trade policy that sets a cap on the total GHG emissions from specific industries) and added financial incentives/penalties for decarbonization. The commitment preempted stricter regulations through self regulation and fostered collaborations like the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Users Group that was launched in 2008 and united producers, airlines & NGOs to ensure biofuels met sustainability criteria.

SAF

The roots of the idea of SAF can be traced back to the mid 20th Century with the 1940s Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Synthesis. The process which has its roots back in the 1920s was developed by German scientists Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch to convert coal or biomass into liquid hydrocarbons, including kerosene like fuels (ATF is kerosene). While originally developed to overcome wartime shortages, FT synthesis laid the foundational work of producing jet fuel from non fossil sources.

The Oil shocks of the 1970s further spurred global interest in developing alternative fuels. In 1974 Brazil started the ProAlcool program which produced bioethanol from sugarcane for road transport vehicles. This program demonstrated the scalability of biofuels and catalysed interest in bio-jet fuels.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol further heightened global focus on GHG emissions. Aviation, which then contributed about 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions, was growing rapidly with no alternatives to ATF came under scrutiny. Initial studies focussed on adapting ethanol and biodiesel processes,  but jet fuel’s need for high calorific values at low ambient temperatures shifted focus to hydrotreating (process of removing impurities such as sulphur and improving fuel quality) & FT synthesis.

Recognizing that biofuels were the path to decarbonizing, with minimal changes to aircraft & infrastructure, the concept of drop-in fuels gained traction. The SAF concept crystallized in 2005 as the quickest solution and was adopted by IATA in 2009 using 2005 as a baseline.DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) took specific interest in this project.

The newfound synergy between all the stakeholders resulted in the first tangible steps. Honeywell UOP partnered with DARPA to develop the renewable jet fuel process. Boeing collaborated with airlines, fuel producers & research facilities to further explore the practical application of bio jet-fuel.

SAF is produced through multiple refining processes that convert feedstocks into drop-in fuels. These processes or pathways convert diverse raw materials such as waste oils, biomass or captured carbon dioxide into hydrocarbons that mimic fossil based jet fuel while reducing lifecycle GHG emissions by 80%.

HEFA (Hydrotreated Esters & Fatty Acids) uses feedstocks of waste cooking oils & animal fats removes oxygen from triglycerides & fatty acids ( fat the human body stores, remember this is from cooking oil)producing paraffinic hydrocarbons (linked carbon and hydrogen atoms, found in fuels and known for their clean burning, high energy density properties)via hydrogenation.Simply put it is gather the grease, remove the oxygen, make fuel like molecules by adjusting the molecular chains or makes fuel from unwanted oils. This process produces top quality SAF. HEFA competes with bio diesel and has limited feedstock availability. However this is still the dominant process and accounts for 80% of all current SAF production. (companies : Neste)

The FT Synthesis uses biomass such as agricultural & municipal waste as feedstock. The biomass is gasified into syngas (carbon monoxide & hydrogen), then catalytically converted into liquid hydrocarbons, which are then refined into jet fuel. While feedstocks are flexible which translates to potentially high volumes, the high capital costs & energy intensive nature of gasification plants are obstacles to the adoption. While certified in 2009, the FT synthesis process is still niche.

Synthesized iso-Paraffins (SIP) / Direct Sugar to Hydrocarbon (DSHC) uses sugars such as sugarcane or corn syrup as feedstock. Fermentation converts sugars into farnesane, a hydrocarbon, which is then hydroprocessed into jet fuel. While this process produces high density fuel, it is a niche pathway with a limited blend ratio and is expensive to produce. (companies: Amyris)

Alcohol to Jet (ATJ) uses ethanol or isobutanol from biomass as feedstock. Alcohols are dehydrated (water is removed), oligomerized (smaller molecules for more efficient & cleaner burning) & hydroprocessed (refined using hydrogen under heat and pressure)to form jet fuel hydrocarbons. Certified in 2016 this process leverages existing ethanol infrastructure and uses versatile feedstocks, however this process is complex and multi-layered, leading to higher costs. (companies: Gevo, LanzaTech)

Power to Liquid (PtL) / Synthetic Fuels (e-SAF) uses carbon dioxide captured from the air directly  and green hydrogen (from electrolysis using renewable energy) as feedstock. The carbon & hydrogen are combined using FT or methanol synthesis to produce synthetic hydrocarbons which are refined into jetfuel.While this is still an emerging process, it is an extremely niche method & energy intensive,it is reliant on cheap renewable electricity. The RefuelEU is an aviation initiative that requires 1.2% e-SAF by 2030.

There are multiple other emerging pathways such as Hydroprocessed Hydrocarbons (HH-SPK) that use algae oils, this is not scaled as it damages ecosystems. Catalytic Hydrothermolysis (CHJ) that converts oils/fats under high pressure & temperature. Lignocellulosic (plant biomass) pyrolysis is the fast pyrolysis (decomposition through high temperatures) into bio-oil, this is an experimental process that upgrades bio-oil to jet fuel.

HEFA dominates at the moment because of its maturity & cost effectiveness, but PtL & ATJ are growing fast. Current global SAF production is at 2.5 bn liters/year ( IATA , Jun 2025 press release )of the total global ATF requirement of 300 bn liters/year.

Neste is the world’s leading SAF producer with operations in 14 countries. Its strategy is centered around HEFA technology using its patented NEXBTL technology to produce high quality SAF. It has the early mover advantage and has been helped by EU policy ensuring a ready market for its SAF. Neste prioritizes 100% waste and residue materials such as cooking oil and animal fat waste. It avoids food competing crops such as palm oil (phased out in 2020). Neste produces 25% of global SAF with three refineries, supplies over 20 airlines and airports and uses logistics partner skyNRG for blending & distribution.

SAF continues to face challenges such as limited waste oil supply, and it costs between 2-3x(World Economic Forum, “The cost of sustainable aviation fuel: Can the industry clear this key hurdle?” July 2025). that what ATF costs, however global policy shifts ensure this fuel is the quickest off the blocks in the decarbonization race.

Note: Could not avoid the chemical terms, have tried to explain them succinctly 

Hydrogen

Hydrogen has always featured in aviation almost from the beginning. Starting with the early 20th Century when it was used for buoyancy on early airships such as the Zeppelin LZ1 as far back as 1900. Hydrogen is known for its high energy density by weight and is seen as a potential fuel due to its zero carbon emissions.

During the 1930s German engineers conducted turbojet experiments using gaseous hydrogen laying the groundwork for cryogenic (hydrogen needs to be stored at -252.8 degrees C for storage efficiency and maximize payload and range. Cryogenic LH2 tanks, though insulated and complex, enable aircraft to carry sufficient fuel for long flights). Gaseous hydrogen would require impractically large tanks, reducing payload or making the aircraft design unfeasible. This was followed by Sikorsky Aircraft proposing liquid hydrogen as a fuel. By the 1950s liquid hydrogen production was scaled for rocket applications. The USAF’s ‘Project Bee’ began with a Martin B-57B Canberra bomber becoming the World’s first airplane powered by liquid hydrogen. Skunk Works led by Kelly Johnson developed the CL-400 Suntan as a reconnaissance aircraft that ran on P&W’s model 304 hydrogen engines. The project itself was cancelled but advanced liquid hydrogen’s production & tankage for the space program.

Between the 1960s-80s both the US & Soviet Union ran tests on passenger airliners using liquid hydrogen as propulsion. Lockheed looked at 130-140 passenger transports with ranges between 2700 – 9300km and the Soviet Union used a Tu-155 with a Hydrogen fueled engine. Both the programs highlighted storage and boil off challenges.

By the 1980s aerospace research considered hydrogen a clean and promising fuel for long range aircraft because of its high energy content and low emissions. Messerschmitt Bölkow Blohm (MBB) , the company that included the historic Messerschmitt Aircraft Company, was heavily involved in hydrogen research. The company was acquired by Deutsche Aerospace AG (DASA) which in turn would be acquired by Airbus. In November 1989 a major European Colloquium was held in Strasbourg, Germany. The main topic of the Colloquium was the future of supersonic & hypersonic transportation systems, here a paper on hydrogen as a propellant was presented. While MBB was a major player in the hydrogen space in Europe, there were others as well.

By the late 1990s the Hydrogen Cell Era had begun and between 2000-2002 the Airbus led the Cryoplane study which was funded by the European Commission had assessed liquid hydrogen configurations for biz jets and widebody airliners, it emphasized safety and infrastructure transitions.

In April 2008 Boeing’s fuel cell demonstrator , a modified Diamond DA20 eclipse became the first manned aircraft to fly solely on a hydrogen fuel cell (HFC). It was powered by Intelligent Energy’s 24 kW Proton Exchange membrane (PEM) system (the PEM is key to splitting hydrogen molecules, the electrons are stripped and forced into the electrical circuit generating electricity, while protons head to the cathodes)  reaching 1,000 meters altitude at 100 km/h for 20 minutes.

Over the next decade multiple organizations such as The German Aerospace Centre, Boeing, AeroVironment etc would make advances in the field of hydrogen flight endurance, altitude,storage pressure (hydrogen being gaseous needs to be cooled and stored cryogenically to maximize fuel), fuel cell architecture. These advances set the ground for the next decade.

The decade of the 2020s has seen increased activity with Airbus announcing its ZEROe project with four hydrogen (combustion & fuel cell) concepts targeting the aircraft in the 100-200 passenger range. While most of the aircraft are conventional there is a Blended Wing Body being tested as well. Airbus targets 2035 for its first first craft with zero emissions.

ZeroAvia is a British/American Hydrogen aircraft developer. In 2020 they tested a hydrogen powertrain on a retrofitted Piper M-class and completed their first eight minute flight. The testbed crashed in 2021  at Cranfield during a power system test, nobody was hurt.Since then ZeroAvia has procured two Dornier 228 . One flew in 2023 for ten minutes with one of its engines powered by hydrogen electricity. ZeroAvia has partnered with Textron Aviation, the parent of Cessna, to develop a hydrogen powered Cessna Grand Caravan.

Universal Hydrogen is yet another company in the field, converting an ATR72-500 & Bombardier Dash 8-300 to hydrogen using hydrogen conversion kits to be retrofitted to flying aircraft. There are multiple other companies in the field focusing on different types of aircraft.

Over the next 25 years expect to see the commercial viability & scalability of hydrogen fuel established in multiple aircraft segments. Airbus definitely heads the area, but there are developments happening across multiple companies and aircraft types. What is critical are the proving flights of today.

Electric

The biggest challenge that electric aircraft face is their energy density. Current lithium-ion batteries have an energy density of 250 Wh/kg which is below ATFs 12,000 Wh/kg. This clearly limits range (once again range anxiety), furthermore batteries add significant weight while reducing payload capacity. Nonetheless, short taxi services are still very much in the picture.

Joby Aviation plans to launch commercial taxi services in Dubai & Los Angeles. They plan to have electric vertical takeoff & landing (eVTOL) services. In 2023 they delivered their first eVTOL aircraft to Edwards AFB and have flown their S4, a four rotor electric eVTOL vehicle in urban settings such as New York. Interestingly the S4 can also be converted to hydrogen and has flown a record 523 miles in this form! They have a couple of interesting acquisitions. The first is XWing which they acquired in 2024. XWing focuses on autonomous aircraft and in a capacity constrained aircraft, autonomy means extra space to sell. The second is Blade Air Mobility’s ride share business. Blade Air Mobility is an urban air mobility platform.

The biggest hurdle to Electric propulsion is battery density and weight. Density is expected to reach approx 400-500 Wh/kg by 2030, this clearly helps with range.

Electricity is definitely on the cusp of revolutionizing urban air mobility and this is predicted to be a $1 tn market annually by 2040. The next generation of batteries are expected to be in the 500-1000 Wh/kg range and this definitely improves range and enables larger aircraft.

Hybrid electric aircraft such as the Airbus E-Fan X bridge the gap between current technology and full electric systems, offering a path to decarbonize larger aircraft using electricity.

The Future

As of today the aviation industry is midway through its decarbonizing journey. The progress is accelerating as is seen from the advances in the last ten years. SAF has scaled from 0.1% of total ATF in 2020 to approx 0.3% or 2 billion liters.Over 400,000 flights have flown using ATF blended with SAF. By 2030 we can expect to see aircraft using 100% SAF. (Robb Report Apr’23)

Hydrogen is still in its infancy, however flights such as ZeroAvia’s 19 seater demonstrator prove feasibility. With almost a dozen aircraft in development, hydrogen powered aircraft should enter service by 2030. By 2035 we can see hydrogen powering about 15% of short haul flight below 1000 km. (ZeroAvia, McKinsey, Decarbonizing the aviation sector, Jul 2022)

Electric aircraft are on the cusp of revolutionizing VTOLs. Companies such as Joby & Archer aviation are planning commercial services by 2026.With rising battery densities , we expect aircraft applications to only increase from here. By 2050 expect eVTOls to handle 13% of all urban mobility trips rising from 5% in 2030. (Icct2020 Jul 2020)

Together these technologies are plugging critical gaps to meet the 2050 net-zero target. This means reducing aviation emissions from one billion tons per annum in 2025 to near zero. SAF with proper blending will account 65% of this with production reaching 450 billion liters by 2050. Hydrogen will complement approx 20-25% of SAFs targets by powering regional flights of below 2000km. Electric aircraft will dominate the short range (below 500km) with 20% of urban trips & 10% of regional flights covering a total of between 10-15% of total flight segments by 2050.

Collaboration & Continued Innovation is key…

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